Danes underestimate how well refugees fare in society
A group of researchers from the University of Aalborg has tested the knowledge of Danes when it comes to how well immigrants and their descendants perform on societal areas such as crime, employment, education, equal rights, and support for democracy.
They find that Danes are totally out of touch with reality. Even those with the most positive attitudes towards immigration assess the gap between ethnic Danes and citizens of non-Western origin to be much greater than it actually is.
We could ask ourselves if the current migration policy would have the same support in the Danish population if people were better informed.
SEE BY HOW MUCH DANES MISS THE MARK
The respondents were asked to estimate on a scale from 0% to 100% how well immigrants from non-Western countries and their descendants are faring across different societal areas. The questions that respondents were given can be found at the end of this article. Numbers shown are in percentages.
The respondents perceived the crime rate of young immigrants and descendants from non-Western countries to be 27%. The actual rate is 3.5% – almost 8 times lower. The crime rates for this group have been decreasing for a number of years and have never been as high as the Danes estimate.
On the question of the employment rate among women of non-Western origin, the respondents estimated the rate to be 34%. The actual rate is 52%, which is 18% points higher.
In fact, Danes were not even close to the mark in a single one of the areas covered in the study. They also got it very wrong in estimating immigrants' position on gender equality. Here, the respondents guessed that only 43% of immigrants and descendants support equal rights to work. The actual figure is more than twice as high, namely 89%.
Misperceptions across attitudes
The also study shows that Danes who hold the most negative attitude towards immigration tend to have the least precise knowledge of how well refugees and immigrants actually fare.
Perhaps more strikingly, the study reveals that even those who have the most positive attitudes towards refugees and immigrants have negative misperceptions about the reality.
They do get it less wrong than those with anti-immigration attitudes, but they still tend to believe the situation is worse than it actually is.
THE MOST ANTI-IMMIGRATION GET IT THE MOST WRONG
Responses divided by respondents' attitudes towards immigration. See the end of the article for how researchers determined respondents' attitudes. Numbers shown are in percentages.
Taking the crime rate as an example, the most anti-immigration Danes perceived the rate to be 10 times higher than the actual number, guessing that more than a third of young men of non-Western origin had been convicted for violating the Danish Penal Code.
The Danes with the most pro-immigration attitudes estimated the rate to be 12%, or more than three times the actual figure.
The results show that misperceptions of immigrants from non-Western countries and their descendants are consistently negative across attitudinal divides and areas. This may influence policy, as Danish society risk spending money on solving problems that aren't as extensive as we believe them to be, said Karen N. Breindal, an associate professor at the University of Aalborg and one the researchers behind the study. She says:
"Good democratic debate is based on facts rather than misinformation. And when even the left-wing and those who would like to see more immigrants in the country tend to believe that things are worse than they actually are, there must be some information that is not reaching the population."
Criticism goes unanswered
The researchers behind the study hypothesize that the political debate is the primary driver of skewing Danes' perceptions of refugees and immigrants in a negative direction.
"Although official statistics and studies on immigrants are available to the public, few read these, and most native Danes have limited interactions with immigrants in their everyday lives. Instead, many get their information and cues about immigrants from media reports that are often accompanied by comments from politicians," the researchers note.
Whereas right-wing parties express their anti-immigrant positions, left-wing parties rarely express the opposite view. Instead, they fall silent.
"The right‐wing parties generally take the position that (non‐Western) immigrants are performing badly in the areas covered in this article, a position also adopted by Social Democrats. The left‐wing parties generally do not take the opposite stance — that immigrants are faring well in society. Instead, they seem to avoid the subject," say the researchers.
"This leads to a situation where the only available arguments are that non‐Western immigrants are faring poorly in society, despite official data showing improved outcomes over the years."
THE STUDY EXPLAINED
The survey was conducted in the fall of 2021. Read the full study here, for a minor payment.
There were 2,015 participants. Respondents with an immigrant background were excluded from the data for the results to only concern the perceptions of ethnic Danes. Results were weighted for representativity.
Respondents were asked questions covering areas of employment, education, crime, support for democracy, right to choose one's own partner, and equal right to work for men and women.
For every question, respondents were asked to estimate on a scale from 0% to 100% how well they believed immigrants and their descendents of non-Western origin were faring in the given area.
The figures used in the study are an average of the respondents' replies.
As people rarely have that type of in-depth knowledge about specific societal conditions, the respondents were provided with information about how ethnic Danes were faring in that specific area to be used as a reference point.
On the question of the employment rate of immigrant women, for example, respondents were provided with the fact that the employment rate for ethnically Danish women are 76%.
The official statistics used in the survey were collected by Statistics Denmark and the Danish Ministry of Immigration and Integration.
Survey questions
Employment rate. In 2019, 76% of ethnic Danish women aged 16–64 were employed. On a scale from 0% to 100%, what percentage of non‐Western immigrant women do you believe were employed in 2019?
Education rate. In the 2020/2021 school year, 63% of ethnic Danish men aged 16–19 were enrolled in either secondary school or higher education. On a scale from 0% to 100%, what percentage of non‐Western immigrant men or male descendants of non‐Western immigrants do you believe were enrolled in either secondary school or higher education during this period?
Crime rate. In 2012, 5.4% of male non‐Western immigrants and male descendants of non‐Western immigrants aged 15–29 were convicted of violating the Danish Penal Code. On a scale from 0% to 100%, what percentage of male non‐Western immigrants and male descendants of non‐Western immigrants do you believe were convicted of violating the Danish Penal Code in 2019?
Support for democracy. In 2016, 93% of ethnic Danes expressed support for democracy as a form of government, according to the Danish Ministry of Immigration and Integration's democracy index. On a scale from 0% to 100%, what percentage of non‐Western immigrants do you believe expressed support for democracy as a form of government?
Right to choose own partner. In 2020, 98% of ethnic Danes aged 18–29 reported that their family allowed them to choose their own partner. On a scale from 0% to 100%, what percentage of descendants of non‐Western immigrants aged 18–29 do you believe reported that their family allowed them to choose their own partner?
Equal right to work for men and women. In 2020, 96% of ethnic Danes reported that they “fully agree” that men and women should have equal rights to work. On a scale from 0% to 100%, what percentage of non‐ Western immigrants do you believe reported that they “fully agree” that men and women should have equal rights to work?
How attitudes towards immigration were assessed
In responding to the survey, respondents were met with one of the following two statement:
1) “Immigration is a serious threat to Danish culture.”
2) “Immigrants are generally an asset to the Danish economy.”
The respondents could answer on a five‐point scale from “Strongly agree” to “Strongly disagree.”
If respondents answered "Strongly agree" to the first of the statements they would figure in the "Very negative" category. If they answered "Disagree" or "Strongly disagree", they would figure in the "Positive" or "Very positive" category, respectively.
The same thing goes for the second statement, only in reverse, so that respondents who answer "Strongly agree" figure in the "Very positive" category.